Could London House Prices collapse?

London property owners could face £78,267 being knocked off average house values if the UK market collapses in 2017 along similar lines to the global financial crash a decade ago, reports OPPToday.

With A Times survey of leading economists predicting that 2017 will be the year the London property bubble finally bursts, online agent, eMoov.co.uk has calculated what the potential impact could be to property values across London and the rest of the UK.

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It analysed the fall in prices across each region between the end of 2007 and the beginning of 2009 and applied the same percentage drop to the current average house price to highlight the impact a potential market crash could have on the current market.

At the end of 2007 when the market was on the cusp of a meltdown, the average UK house price was £189,424. Property values then fell by 16.7% (-£31,618).

If the same drop was seen today on the current average UK house price of £217,928, homeowners across the UK would see £36,393 wiped from their property price, or £399 a week over 21 months, bringing it down to £181,535.

Russell Quirk, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of eMoov.co.uk, says, “Although the UK property market as a whole is faring very well, there are signs that the London market, particularly the prime central end, is running out of steam heading into 2017.

“Even so, it is unlikely that we will witness a market crash as monumental as the one we experienced a decade ago, so homeowners should rest assured that this research acts as a warning of what the worst-case scenario might look like with London homeowners losing £858 a week in property value.

“However, it is a warning none the less and one that the majority of homeowners should heed. A turbulent year for the property market has seen many buyers and sellers back off from their sale or purchase and batten down the hatches to wait out the storm.

“Whilst the market itself remains resolute, it will inevitably stutter to a halt without the buyer-seller activity it needs to operate. Those considering a sale now would be wise to act before it’s too late, as a reduction in asking price of a few hundred pounds in the current market climate, is a lot easier to stomach than a loss of up to £80,000 a year or so down the line should the market crash.”

Meanwhile, London remains the UK’s burglary claims capital, with 16 of the top 20 hotspots, according to MoneySuperMarket’s annual burglary claims analysis.

MoneySuperMarket analysed 1.8 million home insurance quotes run on its website over the last two years (January 2015-December 2016) to identify the postcodes with the highest and lowest rate of claims for home contents theft within a five year period.

North-East London’s Redbridge (IG4) has crept up the rankings to take the number one spot this year, up from third place in last year’s analysis. However, the news isn’t all bad, as the area’s overall claim rate has dropped by four per cent from 56.7 per 1,000 quotes last year, to 54.7 per 1,000 in this year’s analysis.

North London postcodes dominate the rest of the top five, with Whetstone (N20), Chadwell Heath (RM6) and Clayhall (IG5) all making an appearance. Leeds (LS5) is the only area outside the capital to feature at the top end of the list, taking fourth place.

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Cambridge (CB5), which avoided the top 202 last year, has risen to position 12 in the latest analysis, with a rate of 41.8 burglary claims per 1,000 quotes. Chorlton-cum-Hardy in Manchester (M21) also features in the top 20, with a rate of 40.5 burglary claims per 1,000 quotes, alongside Leeds (LS8), which has a rate of 39.3 burglary claims per 1,000 quotes.

Elsewhere, repeat offending is rife in the top 20, with 11 of last year’s top 20 postcodes featuring once more in the rankings. However, residents of Dulwich (SE21), last year’s top hotspot, will be pleased to see it has fallen to number nine this year, with the rate of burglary claims in the area dropping by an impressive 29 per cent.

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