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Overseas property price drop opens door for investors - 24 April 2009

In the same week that saw an austere Budget give some new ideas and new funding, if little hope or impetus, to house buyers in the UK, analysts in some of the fastest-growing overseas property destinations have observed and predicted steep falls in asking prices. While these markets are seeing severe pressure put on prices through a combination of exchange rates and lack of buyer interest, rapidly-declining prices could see the return of cash-rich investors looking for a bargain for the future.

Property in Bulgaria, once the darling of the overseas property investment world, has dropped in price across the board to levels equivalent to the beginning of 2007. The drop is said to have affected all areas of the country, from the tourist havens of the Black Sea coast to the ski resorts and even the capital, Sofia. Combined factors of a drop in available mortgage funding, the global recession draining confidence and the sudden disappearance of Russian middle-class buyers are behind a large part of the drop in process, along with a likely market correction of some overvalued properties.

Meanwhile in another investment hotspot, Dubai, experts are predicting the possibility of even steeper drops in prices. A recent report released by Swiss banking group UBS has predicted that prices in the emirate could ‘bottom out’ at 70 per cent less than their peak in the final quarter of 2008. In research note, the company said, “In our view we are still in relatively early stages of the property down cycle in the UAE. We believe risk-reward profiles are not yet compelling for investors to consider market re-entry hence continued price declines are expected.”

UBS also said they expected the population of Dubai to fall by around ten per cent in the next two years as job cuts take effect and those losing their jobs are forced to leave the country as their visas are cancelled.

However, with adversity there is opportunity. There are cash buyers out there in the market who are waiting to call the bottom of the market and buy up properties at below what they see as the realistic market value. Once that happens and the wheels of the market once again begin to turn, mortgage finance should again begin to appear and more buyers can come into the market.

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